Most Oregon counties would maintain or improve their COVID-19 risk rating next week according to preliminary data from the Oregon Health Authority.
Counties won't officially find out where they place on the four tiers of risk level until Tuesday. Another week of data will be included in the ratings and movement up and down is possible compared to current trends. "All data are provisional and subject to change," OHA says on its website.
Clatsop County is on track to improve from high to medium risk if it can maintain current trends until the next levels are announced Tuesday. Deschutes County and the tri-county Portland area appear to be holding onto their high risk ratings after several weeks of being stuck at extreme risk.
The Oregon Health Authority measures COVID-19 cases and positive test percentages each week. Every other week, it uses the numbers to adjust the position of counties on the four-tier risk chart of extreme, high, medium and lower risk.
Each category has different restrictions on businesses and activities.
Clatsop County, which includes Astoria, is showing a current rate of 73.7 cases per 100,000. The county also saw its positive test rate drop to 2.3% Counties with between 50 and 100 cases per 100,000 are rated as medium risk if their positive test rate is also under 5%. Clatsop is currently at high risk.
Deschutes County barely made the drop from extreme to high risk last week when cases dipped to 195.3 per 100,000. Getting below the 200 mark moved the county out of the extreme risk category for the first time in several weeks. The county is currently on track for 159.6 cases per 100,000. The positivity rate has fallen to 3.4%. The current data is only through Feb. 13 and could be affected by numbers from an outbreak at Summit High School in Bend.
Crook and Jefferson counties will likely remain in the extreme category.
Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties are maintaining cases and rates that would allow them to stay in the high risk category.
Malheur County is on track to move from extreme to medium risk and Baker County is maintaining its high risk rating.
But Umatilla, Wallowa, Union, Morrow and Harney counties appear to still be maintaining extreme level caseloads.
Lane County, which includes Eugene, is at 194.5 cases with a 2.7% infection rate — numbers that could move it from extreme to high risk.
Wasco County could move from extreme to high risk.
There are a few exceptions to the trend. Douglas County is showing a rise to 271.7 cases per 100,000, a pace that would push it back into extreme risk restrictions.
Lake County continues to be a center of COVID-19 infections, with 1,002.4 cases per 100,000 and a rising infection rate of 19.4%
Statewide, Oregon has 181.3 cases per 100,000 and a test positive rate of 3.8%
A full report of the most recent data can be found at www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/Documents/DataReports/Weekly-County-Metrics.pdf.
An interactive map of Oregon showing data and risk levels is at coronavirus.oregon.gov/Pages/living-with-covid-19.aspx#countystatus